Redmond, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

710
FXUS66 KSEW 060933
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
233 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...The warmest temperatures of the forecast period are
expected on Monday as an upper level ridge becomes positioned over
the northwest. The ridge will transit east on Monday evening, for
a trough and front to arrive and keep rain showers in the forecast
through mid week.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...As the ridge establishes
itself in the region today and into Monday, expect slightly above
average temperatures. Today will be in the mid to upper 60s, with
temperatures likely peaking for the week on Monday in the low to
mid 70s. Areas of fog are likely this morning, with the most
recent satellite imagery as of 09Z showing pockets of it starting
to develop in the Southwest interior and will likely settle in
river valleys.

The ridge will shift more east later on Monday, giving the system
impacting British Columbia a chance to sink south and weaken as
it sags into western Washington. Rain chances increase during the
afternoon and evening hours on Monday, and while QPF amounts have
increased slightly from the previous forecast, only a quarter to
half inch of rain is expected along the Olympics and areas of the
north Cascades. The metropolitan areas of Puget Sound are likely
to see around a tenth of an inch of rain.

The broad trough pattern offshore lingers into Tuesday, keeping
chances for rain in the forecast, with minimal amounts expected
into the middle of the week.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...The core of the offshore
trough nears closer to the coast by Wednesday, dynamically
renewing the chances for showers, but the majority of the region
should only see a few hundredths of an inch rain through Thursday.
Ridging cuts off the chances for precipitation late in the week,
which will bring up the temperatures again, which is still in line
with the Climate Prediction Center outlooks for the next 6 to 10
days that favor above average temperatures and below average
precipitation. This is also in good agreement in the ensembles and
cluster analyses.

Kristell



&&

.AVIATION...Western Washington remains on the periphery of an upper
level ridge with west to southwest flow aloft expected to continue
throughout the day today and into Monday. With light surface
gradients in place over the area, surface winds remain largely light
and variable this early morning before shifting more south to
southwesterly this afternoon with speeds generally running 4-8 kts.

Widespread VFR conditions in place over W WA this early
morning...but the forecast question for the near term will be how
long does that remain. Latest IR satellite showing some high clouds
in place over the northern half of the CWA, from PAE north...but
seemingly clear skies over the more problematic terminals, such as
HQM, OLM and PWT, suggest that stratus/fog development is possible
there with MVFR to IFR conditions possibly emerging. The limiting
factor however is the decreasing amount of moisture in the lower
atmosphere...no juice, no fog. Current TAFs have the possibility of
lower layer clouds/fog mentioned in TEMPO groups and this seems to
be the best way to handle that prospect at the time. There should be
some indicators as the 12Z issuance approaches and as such, can weed
out some of the sites that may not see any of this development while
potentially bumping previously referred to more prone terminals from
TEMPOs to prevalent condition. It does not help forecast-wise, but
this is one of those early mornings that is very much a wait-and-see
circumstance. Anything that does develop should be shallow and burn
off quickly, with widespread VFR conditions expected by late this
morning. High clouds expected to remain throughout the remainder of
the day and into the overnight hours before the threat for
stratus/fog development will need to be reconsidered for early
Monday morning.

KSEA...Model guidance not quite as unified in bringing low
clouds/fog into the terminal as they were 24 hours ago. That said,
one scenario that merits watching is the potential for fog
development in valleys north/east of the airport then migrating
westward in light low level easterly flow around daybreak. As
mentioned above, this possibility is covered in a TEMPO group
running 13Z to 16Z and this seems to be the best way to handle it at
this time given various levels of uncertainty. VFR expected once
again Sunday afternoon with just high level clouds. Surface winds
light and variable this early morning then W/SW at 4 to 8 kts for
much of the day. Light and variable winds expected to return
during the overnight hours. 18/27


&&

.MARINE...Surface high pressure over the coastal waters will
continue today shifting closer to the coast. This will allow for
southerlies to develop over the coastal waters and south to
southwesterly winds over the interior waters by this afternoon. A
dissipating cold front will bring borderline SCA level winds to the
coastal waters on Monday, however latest model solutions putting
most speeds just under advisory criteria and as such, will not put
forth any headlines with the morning forecast issuance. Another weak
system is on track to follow mid-week.

Seas 3 to 5 ft will gradually rise throughout the day, peaking at 7
to 9 ft by the start of Monday before subsiding slightly to 6 to 8
ft Monday evening, where they will remain into mid-week.

18


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$